The Great Recession

“Remember that the market is a forward-looking indicator. Ideally, it is pricing in the gains of the next six to 18 months.”

(Seeking Alpha)

Famous last words again and again. That sunny advice about today’s overpriced market was repeated again about a week ago. It is the same excuse that was routinely deployed at the beginning of this rally back in April and May and especially in June and July as the market recovered most of its losses in spite of all the gloom. “These prices are justified,” they said, “because the all-wise market looks forward six months or more, and by the start of 2020, the economy will have almost completely recovered.” Continue reading “Stock Market as Forward Looking as a Caboose”

The Great Recession

How the QAnon conspiracy theory attracted millions of followers, many of whom were willing to drink the Kool Aid and die for their beliefs, will always be for me one of the modern marvels of mankind. Somehow it was easier and more logical for millions of people who needed hope to believe Bill and Hillary Clinton were reptilian aliens who were leading a pedophile cult that secretly gathered to eat babies in the basement of a pizzeria that served as a front for their underground sex-trafficking railroad to Epstein Island than to simply believe Donald Trump was inept. Continue reading “It was Easier to Believe President Donald was a Duck than a Quack”

The Great Recession

The faint heartbeat of this week’s jobs report did not keep the stock market from trying to scramble back up to its record heights. The surging and plunging and scrambling for cash and closing of gates at Robinhood did not stop the rise either. Continue reading “DON’T-STOP GAME STOCKS: Bankrupt Companies As Trillion-Dollar Chips in the Wall Street Casino”

The Great Recession

What does MAGAnificent America look like now that it’s here? Does America really feel greater after the last four years? Be honest now. Be really honest. From where I stand, America has never looked worse in any year of my life! That’s a statement packed with facts.

One of the big lies we are currently told by Trump’s remaining congressional allies and staffers, which I’m getting particularly sick of, is that we should remember his great accomplishments. Let’s look at those that are often claimed by Trump in his endless boasting. Outside of his unhinged stock market, which has been soaring, America’s economic decline was already relentlessly happening before COVID, as I frequently pointed out throughout his last two years.
Continue reading “MAGAnificent! The Economic Truth or Terror is Known at Last”

The Great Recession

The big talk among economists and central banksters and some politicians in 2020 has shifted toward how the Coronacrisis will (or “must”) result in a global financial/social reset. I’ve said for years we can anticipate central bank digital currencies (even before that term existed) to happen in conjunction with a global financial reset. Now we are in that era, and I’ve been writing about it this year in my Patron Posts. Continue reading “The Great Reset: Leaning into 2021 Money Storm”

The Great Recession

In my last Patron Post, which I eventually made available to everyone, I revealed a little-known (at the time) fact that M1 money supply (the most liquid forms of cash — bills, checks and basic savings accounts) had grown faster than any time in history. I showed that using a graph like the following, which is now brought up to the most current data: Continue reading “Why M1 Money Supply (Cash) is Skyrocketing Like No Time History”

The Great Recession

The following article comes with a surprising revelation — possibly an alarming revelation — at the end. Something big is happening at the Fed — the largest movement of “cash” in history. I don’t know what to make of it, because the Fed has been completely silent about it, and the mainstream financial press has missed it entirely. Crickets.

I published this article as a Patron Post exclusively for those who kindly support me at the $5 level or above before I knew anything about the big money moves that suddenly appeared in Fed data. I found those moves right after researching for this article. Because they prove the article’s theme, I added them after publication. (Patrons may want to make sure they’ve read the latest additions.) Continue reading “It’s Not Often I Get to Proclaim “THE FED IS DEAD” Then Watch the Fed Put on the Toe Tag!”

The Great Recession

We are now seeing the most euphoric stock stock market in history — a market as precariously perched as the one I laid out last January. “Market Euphoria Surpasses Dot Com Levels” says one headline.

There is another way of putting it: extreme euphoria.

Continue reading “Market AGAIN More Precariously Euphoric Than Any Time in History”

The Great Recession

Let us speak of megabanks and global corporations, chicanery and swine, and speak of how the great have feasted in the troughs of trillions dumped out by the present administration, congress, and the Fed, for 2020 makes the bailouts of the Great Recession look like childhood snacks.  Continue reading “The Great 2020 Bailout Bonanza”

The Great Recession

Hillary was a liar and a crook. By all appearances her campaign paid for and instigated the Great Lie against Donald J. Trump. Her campaign’s fabricated documents cast an intentional shadow over his entire term, pegging him falsely as someone who collaborated with “the Russians.” We don’t know how much she knew about the document her campaign paid for, but certainly the evidence points to her knowing it all. Her lie damaged the American Republic because it created years of chaos and distrust, exactly as it was intended to do according to the head of the CIA. Continue reading “In a World Filled with More Liars than Ever, Donald J. Trumps Them All!”

The Great Recession

Investors will start to realize the economy is not recovering in August, I said. As result, the stock market will break sometime in August or September, I said. It will likely experience an even bigger plunge as an October surprise, I said, because something about October loves a Halloweenish surprise for stocks. Continue reading “Halloween Madness Tears Stock Market to Shreds”

The Great Recession

The major knock-on effects of the COVID shutdown are now starting to stack against each other, pushing city centers into the dust. Here are some of the big moves that are as characteristic of the US as they are of the world overall. Continue reading “Knock-on Effects Knock out Economy Like Dominoes”

The Great Recession

I mentioned in a recent article that the weird thing about this recession is that it is the only one in which personal income has gone up during a recession. That, of course, is because of government assistance, which is making it so we don’t have to feel the pain of a recession that the government, itself, caused — through its massive debt, tax breaks for the 1%, reliance on the Fed to solve government’s problems, and most currently through its forced economic shutdown as a response to COVID-19 — something that even the WHO now says was failed policy that should never have happened — even though they helped make sure it did happen! Continue reading “The Upbeat Downbeat on Housing and Commercial Real Estate”

The Great Recession

Jobs didn’t get much worse in September, but they stopped getting better.
This is a tale of where the recovery road for the US economy ended. Unemployment is the crux of the Covidcrisis economic story. While jobs showed a little improvement in September, a little digging through the numbers reveals the return to full employment has started a turn toward the worse. (Not as bad as “worst,” but “worse” than May-July.) Continue reading “Employment’s Recovery Road Comes to an End”

The Great Recession

It wasn’t just COVID that got us down the road to ruin. Because many think we are in what looks like a post-apocalyptic world of rubble only because of COVID or because of Trump, I decided now would be a good time to summarize how predictably the Fed’s Great Recovery and Great Rewind got us here.

Now that we see the Fed has become too impotent to even risk acting, lest it prove its impotence before the entire world, let us look at how predictable every step down our road to economic ruin has been. This blog has proven that by laying out each turn before we got to it so that, when we got where we are now, we could tell how we did and how one could see it coming. Continue reading “The Path by Which We Got Here”

The Great Recession

All three major stock-market indices completed three consecutive weeks of falling today as we head into fall next week. The NASDAQ, as you see in the opening graph, has set up a clear trend of perfectly aligned closings this week.

This summary of the market in September — the bullseye for my target dates for the market’s big fail — will be short but sour, as I try to focus my writing time on my next Patron Post. I just could not resist commenting on this week’s decisive market close. Continue reading “Stocks are Falling into Fall”

The Great Recession

This graph shows where my mind goes every time I ask myself how far the S&P 500 is likely to fall before it finds a solid bottom.

As you know, I don’t make predictions based on charts, but clearly there is intense convergence of longterm support around the 2,000 level and strong indication of a subliminal desire in the market to keep plumbing the bottom to find that depth. Continue reading “Technically, This is Where I Think the S&P Will Find Strong Support and a Final Resting Place”

The Great Recession

Dave Portnoy is shaking his fist at the stock market, daring it to give him a bigger pounding than it already has — telling his gambling fans how the $700 million he lost on Thursday, and the four-million he’s lost “in a f—ing blink” over the week is just a flesh wound, a mere scratch.

If it’s “just a scratch,” he’s soon going to look like he took a naked marathon run through the blackberry patch. So, it’s a good thing he doesn’t appear to be too sober. He’s going to need a lot more anesthesia before his downhill run is over. Continue reading “Bullheaded Dave Portnoy Gets Pounded with His Own Hammer”