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Heavy Duty Truck Orders Collapse To Worst Numbers Since July 2016, Down 70% In May

Zero Hedge – by Tyler Durden

A bloated backlog of Class 8 orders as a result of a euphoric mid-2018 continues to weigh on heavy duty truck orders in 2019.

Preliminary North America Class 8 net order data from ACT Research shows that the industry booked just 10,800 units in May, down 27% sequentially, but also lower by an astonishing 70% year-over-year. YTD orders are down 64% compared to the first five months of 2018. 

This chart shows the stunning difference between 2018 orders (black bars) and 2019 orders (red bars).

Class 8 trucks, which are made by Daimler (Freightliner, Western Star), Paccar (Peterbuilt, Kenworth), Navistar International, and Volvo Group (Mack Trucks, Volvo Trucks), are one of the more common heavy trucks on the road, used for transport, logistics and occasionally (some dump trucks) for industrial purposes. Typical 18 wheelers on the road are generally all Class 8 vehicles, and traditionally are seen as an accurate coincident indicator of trade and logistics trends in the economy.

In addition, a follow up note from JP Morgan noted that Class 5-7 (medium duty) net new orders were down 21% YoY and down 19% sequentially. For May, net orders were 19,300 units, down 21% YoY and down 19% MoM. Despite these trends, JP Morgan still expects 2019 production of ~278,000 units (up 2% YoY).

Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst said: “Fraying freight market and rate conditions along with a still-large Class 8 order backlog contributed to the worst NA Class 8 net order performance since July of 2016. May saw NA Class 8 orders fall below the 15,900 units averaged through the year’s first trimester, and year-to-date Class 8 net orders have contracted 64% compared to the first five months of 2018.”

Speaking about the medium duty market, Vieth commented: “While the US manufacturing/freight economy has been droopy since late 2018, the medium-duty market continues to benefit from the underlying strength in the consumer economy. In May, NA Classes 5-7 net orders were 19,300 units, down 21% year-over-year and 19% from April. One has to look back 22 months to find a weaker medium-duty order month on an actual basis or just 2 months when looking at the data on a seasonally adjusted basis.”

In mid-May, we pointed out the dire picture for shipping for the rest of 2019.

The Cass Freight Index report for the month ended April 2019 painted a dire picture for freight heading into the end of the second quarter. The report said that “continued decline” in the freight index remains a concern, pointing out that shipments have fallen 3.4% year over year while expenditures have risen 6.2%. Sequentially on a monthly basis, shipments are down 0.3% while expenditures ticked up 0.7%.

 

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7 Responses to Heavy Duty Truck Orders Collapse To Worst Numbers Since July 2016, Down 70% In May

  1. Mark Schumacher in LV says:

    Not surprising, because of the so called lack of drivers, they cant fill the trucks they claim they have, so their not ordering new trucks. The new trucks is what brings in the drivers, they entice them with the new equipment. But, that is coming to a quick end now. Drivers dont want to drive pieces shit ontop of everything else that comes along with this job.

    Trucking is the first indicator when things start to get bad.

    You wouldnt catch me dead doing this job unless I had new equipment. I even took a pay cut because of it. New equipment is everything, especially when you have to live in the damn thing, additionally, lack of breakdowns as well. That will kill a weeks pay right there.

    Lack of drivers is bullshit, they’re plenty of trucks on the road right now. There not buying because they’re gready. Their going to make these new ones currently last as long as possible.

    They have filled the seats, many have quit and they cant find drivers to fill those seats. So this is why they’re not buying. The job simply doesnt pay enough for what we go through out here. If your a family man, forgettaboutit.

    Once the new truck thing wears off, and your getting screwed, you quit. Tough job man…. it’s almost killed me twice..

    Right now I’m in Spikes ( our deceased brothers home town), Fort Wayne Indiana loading for Portland. They want me there by 6/10 3pm, 2800 miles. See what I mean?

    • Mark Schumacher in LV says:

      Correction 2200 miles. Many cant handle 600/650 miles every damn day. Your body breaks down.

      • jack frost says:

        ya it was always told to hurry hurry hurry to just drop it off at a holding yard some times i think there time schedules are just full of shit , plus being governed at 60 mpr didnt help .

  2. galen says:

    Couldn’t possibly have anything to do with manufacturing going to some 3rd world country. Could it?

    .

    • Mark Schumacher in LV says:

      Nope, most our trucks are made here. Maybe some parts. They dont pay enough money, cant keep drivers. Hiring illegals is a two edged sword.

      • galen says:

        Hard to shake my suspicion of internationalism doin’ what it wants to where it wants to. Can’t imagine them not needing trucks for their pursuits. If nothing else, to load us in to. Ha!!

        .

        • Mark Schumacher in LV says:

          Volvo, Freightliner, kenworth, Peterbuilt are assembled here for the most part. Accessories etc. yes offshore. Volvo is making there trucks as well in Europe, those European trucks stay in Europe, whole different set of regulations and looks as well. European trucks look nothing like ours. Run completely different. They make a far more different truck than we do here.

          This is what happens when you let huge trucking companies make the rules, eventually, they end up killing themselves.

          GREED….

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