Hurricane Florence raised to Category 4 Monday. ‘Exceptionally heavy rain’ expected.

The Charlotte Observer

Hurricane Florence is now a Category 4 storm and is “rapidly strengthening” as it heads toward the Carolinas coast, with “exceptionally heavy rain,” the National Hurricane Center said Monday morning.

In an noon update sent out by NOAA, the storm’s winds rose from 105 mph winds to 130 mph in a matter of hours, and it has picked up speed in its westward trajectory, from 9 mph to 13 mph.  

“Further strengthening is anticipated and Florence is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane through Thursday,” said a National Hurricane Center statement.

“Storm force winds” are expected to hit North Carolina at 8 a.m. Thursday, and some eastern counties could see as much as 12 inches of rain in the four days that follow, said the National Weather Service in a Monday morning update.

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23 thoughts on “Hurricane Florence raised to Category 4 Monday. ‘Exceptionally heavy rain’ expected.

    1. I can say it and it really irks me that this is the first thing that comes to my mind with regard to what could be dangerous & devastating weather.

      Seems like everything is contingent upon some other force. Like Trump, not quite sure what he may do with regards to Syria, just waiting around for his masters in Tel Aviv to give the next order. Now this storm, just not sure which way it’ll track, could do this, might do that, etc.. It’s waiting for it’s orders too & probably coming out of TA again.

      Even the weather’s a FRAUD!

    1. If it hits as a Category 3, my sister will have to evacuate. If it hits as a 4, it will probably completely destroy her house.
      There are some contractors somewhere about to make a whole lot of money, helping out our government.

      1. Looks like you’re keeping tabs as well since your sis could be affected. Hope she stays safe for sure.

        Hurricane Harvey in Texas was a total mess and in our county that was flooded due to the Colorado River spilling over, the massive amounts of monies going everywhere was astounding, and it’s still going on as I type this.

        1. The link at the bottom of “The Charotte Oserver” post is updating so check it out.
          Henry, from what I’m reading on and other sites, it will be at the very least a Category 3 and it is going to hoover over the Carolinas like Harvey did over TX. Please talk your sister into getting out of there. Katie, I don’t know exactly where your folks are, but I recommend doing your best to talk them into going inland (way inland, like another State) as well. I HATE that Mark is having to drive through this. Praying that he puts the peddle to the metal and beats it. Prayers for all our Trenchers and Trencher families in the area.
          NYC local evening news showed the Red Cross in Connecticut and New Jersey loading trucks and vans to head down there (as is FEMA).

          1. Talked to one in Greenville, NC which is inland, but it does flood there, and they said they are evacuating the coastal area tomorrow in NC. Thanks Angel.

  1. I won’t unblock ads for this Washington Post rag, so won’t be able to read. Searched around somewhere else to read it but found nothing. Perhaps they’re the first to publish this news, or it’s a rouse to get some bucks from advertising if I unblock ads. Ain’t gonna do it!!!!

    1. Katie, Here’s the story. I couldn’t get the maps and graphics.

      Laura, if there is any issue with me posting this for Katy, Please DELETE it. I do NOT want to cause problems for the Trenches.

      Capital Weather Gang
      ‘Extremely dangerous’ Hurricane Florence may approach Category 5 as it churns toward the Carolinas

      Hurricane Florence is forecasted to be a strong Category 4 storm by the time it makes landfall, bringing high winds, heavy rains and powerful storm surges. (Joyce Koh /The Washington Post)
      By Brian McNoldy and
      Jason Samenow
      September 10 at 5:43 PM

      Hurricane Florence has rapidly intensified on its path toward the East Coast and is now a Category 4 hurricane with 140-mph winds, the National Hurricane Center said at 5 p.m. Monday. The storm could soon be on the brink of a Category 5.

      “None of the guidance suggest that Florence has peaked in intensity,” the Hurricane Center said, predicting that its peak winds will reach 155 mph Tuesday, just 2 mph shy of Category 5. The center expects to issue hurricane watches for parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts Tuesday morning.

      Not only has the storm exploded in intensity, but its zone of hurricane-force winds approximately doubled in size Monday.

      Computer-model forecasts generally project the storm to make landfall between northern South Carolina and North Carolina’s Outer Banks as a Category 4 on Thursday, although shifts in the track are possible and storm impacts will expand great distances beyond where landfall occurs. Given the uncertainty and time it takes to evacuate, officials in North Carolina have issued mandatory evacuation orders for Dare County and Hatteras Island.

      The Hurricane Center is warning of an “extremely dangerous” triple threat in the Carolinas and Virginia:

      1) A “life-threatening storm surge” at the coast — a rise in ocean water over normally dry land.

      2) “Life-threatening freshwater flooding from a prolonged and exceptionally heavy rainfall event” from the coast to interior sections.

      3) “Damaging hurricane-force winds” at the coast and some distance inland.

      Like Hurricane Harvey, which stalled over Texas in 2017, Florence could linger over the Southeast for several days after landfall. Forecast models suggest that more than two feet of rain could fall over the higher elevations of the Carolinas and Virginia, which would generate dangerous flooding downstream. The flooding might be similar to what the Carolinas experienced during Hurricane Matthew in 2016.

      As of 5 p.m. Monday, Florence was tracking west-northwest at 11 mph just less than 1,200 miles east-southeast of Cape Fear, N.C.

      If Florence makes landfall as a Category 4 in North Carolina, it will be the strongest storm to come ashore that far north on record.

      Residents along the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts should continue to prepare for a major hurricane landfall and have an evacuation plan. In those coastal areas, heavy surf and elevated water levels are expected to arrive by Wednesday morning, and rainfall could begin by Thursday morning.

      [Evacuations begin in Outer Banks as Hurricane Florence churns toward N.C.]

      Tropical-storm-force winds could reach the coastline as early as Wednesday night, at which point all outdoor preparations should be completed. Extremely dangerous hurricane-force winds could batter coastal locations Thursday into Friday. Hurricane-to-tropical-storm-force winds could extend inland, depending on the storm’s track.

      Models have come into agreement that a northward turn before reaching the United States is unlikely and that a building high-pressure zone north of the storm will cause it to slow or stall once it reaches the coast or shortly thereafter. Rainfall could begin Friday or Saturday and continue into the following week. Where exactly the zone of heaviest rain will be is a big uncertainty. It could reasonably occur anywhere between the mountains and the coast.

      [What will Hurricane Florence mean for the Washington area?]

      If the storm stalls, some areas could see feet of rain, especially if downpours focus over the higher terrain in western North Carolina and southwestern and central Virginia.

      This region will be particularly susceptible to flooding because of far-above-normal rainfall in the region since May. In addition, because the ground is likely to be saturated, trees will be vulnerable in strong winds.

      Parts of the Mid-Atlantic, especially from Virginia to Pennsylvania, have received 150 to 300 percent of their normal rainfall since May.

      (High Plains Regional Climate Center)

      Residents farther north in coastal and inland areas in the Delmarva Peninsula, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and New York should also monitor the storm and prepare in case the forecast shifts to the north and east.

      Where the storm makes landfall has implications for where the strongest winds and biggest rise in water at the coast occurs, but strong winds and extreme rainfall could occur at great distances from the landfall location. Keeping this in mind, here is the likelihood of landfall at different locations based on our evaluation of model data:

      70 percent in the Carolinas
      10 percent between Virginia and New York
      10 percent offshore
      10 percent between northern Florida and Georgia

      Even in the unlikely event that the storm center remains just offshore, it will almost certainly come close enough to bring dangerous wind and flooding to coastal areas. Inland areas may be somewhat spared in this scenario.

      If a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) does make landfall along the Southeast coast, the rarity of such an event is relevant. Since 1851, only 10 major hurricanes have done so, and the most recent was Fran in 1996, 22 years ago. Hugo in 1989 was the one before that and was a Category 4 at landfall. No hurricane has made landfall as a Category 5 in this region on record.

      Many people in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic probably have not experienced a storm of the potential magnitude of Florence.

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      Brian McNoldy
      Brian McNoldy works in cyclone research at the University of Miami’s world-renowned Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science (RSMAS). His website hosted at RSMAS is also quite popular during hurricane season.
      Jason Samenow
      Jason Samenow is The Washington Post’s weather editor and Capital Weather Gang’s chief meteorologist. He earned a master’s degree in atmospheric science and spent 10 years as a climate change science analyst for the U.S. government. He holds the Digital Seal of Approval from the National Weather Association.
      © 1996-2018 The Washington Post

  2. And, conveniently, the big GE nuke power station at Wilmington is ripe for a direct hit…coincidence?
    If this one is planned, are they wanting an Atlantic Fukushima?

  3. Get a load of this:

    “How do I return after a mandatory evacuation?

    That varies by beach town, so residents should check with their respective towns for re-entry rules and procedures.

    Carolina Beach issues Town Identification Cards (TICs) to property owners, agents, permanent residents and business owners on the island, to expedite re-entry once mandatory evacuation orders are lifted. TICs purchased after April 1 cost $15.

    Town Manager Michael Cramer said the town will begin to sell TIC cards through Tuesday night. As of Monday, lines were roughly an hour’s wait long to get a new TIC card.

    For information on how to apply for a TIC, visit the Town of Carolina Beach website at”

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