The Jobs Report Misunderstanding in a Nutshell: NO V-Shaped Recovery in Sight

The Great Recession

The first graph gives you a glimpse of the “huge jobs rebound” that shocked the stock market into spurting past its 200 DMA barriers because retail investors and algos aren’t looking past the headlines.

The second graph below shows you what a tiny difference that made to the total number of jobs that were lost:

Some recovery, huh?

In broader context, that looks like this:

Why the dramatic difference?

The first graph is the number of jobs added or lost in a month. April saw a net loss of 20.5 million jobs (and that is a very conservative figure). May saw a net gain of 2.5 million. So the change one month was negative, and the change the next month positive. It looks, when graphed like that, to be a full recovery in a month, but it’s just a switch from a big plunge on the negative side of the graph to a small uptick in one step.

However, May’s gain is only 10% of what was lost even by these most conservative estimates, and May’s report included a large mistake:

Read the rest here:

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