As health officials ask thousands to quarantine across the United States, a respected statistician is going public with dire claims that COVID-19 data doesn’t look right at all.
The American quarantines come as deadly coronavirus outbreaks have been reported in several other nations.
In California, where diseases already have an easy time moving around cities thanks to unsanitary conditions and a large homeless population, more than 5,400 people have been asked by the state health department to quarantine themselves.
In Washington state, over 700 are being monitored for possible coronavirus infections.
Georgia, Illinois, and New York are among other states with hundreds of potential cases being watched by officials.
This is a major increase in possible cases that comes after the administration of President Donald Trump ordered a historical quarantine to combat the novel coronavirus.
As we’ve seen in China and aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship, even strict quarantines may not be as effective as officials think.
One expert even warned that the “quarantine process failed” aboard the ship, fanning fears that the virus may have gone airborne or could be easily transmitted in some other way.
Despite COVID-19’s seemingly highly infectious nature, the Chinese government is reporting a slowdown of new infections. According to one statistician, the data that has been pouring out of the communist country doesn’t look right at all.
Melody Goodman, an associate biostatistics professor at New York University’s School of Global Public Health, told Barron’s about her reservations.
“I have never in my years seen an r-squared of 0.99,” she said, referring to an analysis of Chinese numbers. “As a statistician, it makes me question the data.”
The r-squared value deals with the correlation and predictability of data. The closer the value is to 1, the more predictable a particular set of data becomes. With something as inherently unpredictable as a virus, Goodman said .7 would be more realistic — and even that would be “really good.”
“Anything like 0.99 would make me think that someone is simulating data,” Goodman said. “It would mean you already know what is going to happen.”
China, a newly industrialized country that is now the biggest cog in the global economy’s supply chain, risks losing everything if the novel coronavirus keeps factory floors shuttered.
While Chinese propaganda mouthpieces assure the world that the government has everything under control, extreme measures caught on video hint that the ruling communist party is desperate to maintain control.
Numerous videos like the one below have surfaced, showing Chinese officials in protective gear rounding up citizens who are seemingly infected with COVID-19.
— The Epoch Times – China Insider (@EpochTimesChina) February 20, 2020
With new countries coming forward confirming cases of infected and experts casting doubt on China’s claims about the virus, it looks like we have yet to see how bad this outbreak really is.