We are nearing that mid-point in July when I said we would start to see the news turn from euphoria-inducing reopening positives to depression-developing realism.
Speaking of stock-market bulls who are stampeding uphill on the euphoria side, I wrote,
Right now the farce is with them — reopening has arrived! And these stupid people will believe that means they were right about the “V,” virtually assuring they continue to bet the market up for a little while…. The reopening means economic statistics will improve rapidly. That will give a lot of stupid people many reasons to believe they were right to think the obliterated economy would experience a V-shaped recovery.
What they won’t see because they don’t want to see it is that the steep recovery is not going to take the economy back to where it was…. It may take stocks back to their last highs (and beyond!) but not the economy.
And, so it has tuned out. The Dow and S&P have stalled at about a 60% retracement of their earlier crash, which is right where I said I thought they would. They stopped rising well below their all-time peaks because the COVIDcrisis raised its ugly head (the one caveat I gave for stocks continuing rise to the moon) very quickly after our nationwide economic reopening …
Read the rest here: https://thegreatrecession.info/blog/epochalypse-now-how-deep-is-your-depression/