Potential record-breaking heat could push Texas power grid to the brink this weekend

Chron

ERCOT on Tuesday issued a statement publicly acknowledging the potential for increased demand on the Texas power grid this weekend and claims it has asked power plants to delay or curtail planned power outages accordingly, per KHOU’s Bill Bishop.

ERCOT says it has asked power plants across the region to postpone planned outages and return from outages already in progress in order to serve Texans this weekend. At this time, ERCOT projects there will be sufficient generation to meet this high demand for electricity.#khou11

— The Bishop (@BillBishopKHOU) May 3, 2022

The regulating body said it expects energy generation to meet increased demand as extreme heat moves through the state over the weekend.

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Texas residents could be facing potential blackout conditions this weekend in response to spiking temperatures in the Lone Star State and corresponding surges in demand on its notoriously fickle power grid.

According to Austin-based energy consultant Doug Lewin, the Energy Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) is expecting demand for power to reach 69.3 gigawatts on Saturday, May 7 as temperatures in Houston and Dallas hit highs in the low-to-mid ’90s and eclipse 100 in towns such as Midland and Laredo.

“This Saturday, ERCOT expects 69.3GW of demand, an insane amount for a weekend in early May,” Lewin tweeted Monday, estimating that the figure would likely be a record for energy demand on the state grid in the month of May.

I believe the previous record demand in May is ~67GW & all time summer peak is 74.8GW. That we would reach that much demand on a Saturday in May is extraordinary. Usually demand is much lower on the weekends. Extreme weather from #climatechange is already happening.#txlege 2/5

— Doug Lewin (@douglewinenergy) May 2, 2022

Lewin stated that the previous May record, to his best knowledge, peaked around 67 gigawatts. Making matters worse, ERCOT is expecting 20 gigawatts of Texas thermal plants powered by coal and gas to be offline for maintenance during the peak demand window of the coming heat, according to Lewin.

I believe the previous record demand in May is ~67GW & all time summer peak is 74.8GW. That we would reach that much demand on a Saturday in May is extraordinary. Usually demand is much lower on the weekends. Extreme weather from #climatechange is already happening.#txlege 2/5

— Doug Lewin (@douglewinenergy) May 2, 2022

“#ERCOT expects 20GW of thermal plants to be offline. Wind expected to be @ 12GW & solar’s likely to break a record ~9GW. I expect every battery on the grid will be ready for peak @ 5pm. Still, there will likely be tight conditions. Buckle up.”

As of Monday afternoon, ERCOT has not publicly addressed the coming demand spike. The regulatory body faced a storm of national criticism last year when freezing temperatures from Winter Storm Uri derailed the state grid, leading to wide-ranging power outages and hundreds of estimated deaths.

Peak demand during Winter Storm Uri reached around 70 gigawatts, according to a Texas Oil and Gas Association study—an amount only fractionally higher than the load expected this weekend.

Texans can monitor grid conditions and energy availability projections across the state in real-time by accessing ERCOT’s digital dashboard.

Chron