Recent events in the Mideast are rather disturbing even to people like me whose baseline position is that the professionals in both the Israeli and US military will reject war with Lebanon and its allies as unwinnable. But there are some disturbing events all over the Mideast that give us all reason for concern.
Even Dov Zakheim wrote an article in the Chicago Tribune speculating that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MSB), Jared Kushner, Donald Trump’s son-in-law, and PM Netanyahu were plotting something. MSB had gone to Israel in September. Kushner has gone to Saudi Arabia 4 times. Kushner had been going to Israel but the cover story was that he was negotiating with the Palestinians. Some speculate that he wants the Palestinian leader Abbas to support Israel in a war with Lebanon.
(In case you forgot, rabbi Dov Zakheim was the Comptroller of the Pentagon on 9-10-2001 when Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld admitted to CBS News that he could not trace $2.3 trillion in DOD spending. Times have not changed. Professor Mark Skidmore has shown that HUD and DOD cannot account for $21 trillion in spending since 1998.)
MSB has been arresting his rival heirs to the throne. Some of these men have tribal and hence family links to the military. He has arrested over 1,200 other less well known Saudis. MSB has attempted to seize some $800 billion in assets. He needs the money to keep the war in Yemen going, to prepare for war against Lebanon (Hezbollah) and even Iran. Plus he needs to spread around lots of cash to bribe the followers of the princes he arrested.
The US, Saudis and Israel have been fighting a war against Yemen to restore former President Hadi. But their man has advanced Mad Cow Disease according to Mideast sources. Al Jazeera says he is under house arrest. The Iranians say the Saudis had given him $80 million to fight the opposition but he stole the money and probably had an indefensible position anyway.
Mansour Hadi was chosen as a president for a two-year transitional period on February 21, 2012, in an election in which he was the only candidate. In January 2014 his mandate was extended for another year. However, he remained in power after the expiration of his mandate so the people forced him to flee to Saudi Arabia.
So the war in Yemen is a humanitarian crisis and is going nowhere.
Meanwhile in Lebanon, PM Saad Hariri fled to Saudi Arabia where he resigned. Some say he too is under house arrest. Hariri is a billionaire. He used to be a multi-billionaire through the Oger construction company. Recently, 150 unpaid foreign workers seized 150 vehicles and fled. They probably wanted to either hold the vehicles for ransom or to sell them in the black market. Oger has 31,000 unpaid employees including 200 French engineers and managers. Lawsuits abound. The current MBS regime thinks Hariri owes the regime his share of the $9 billion bill for the collapse of Oger.
Hariri’s problems began in January 2011 when he was overheard comparing the Saudi Assistant Minister of Interior, Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, to the “bloodthirsty” Syrian military intelligence chief Assef Shawkat. The company was raided 2 weeks later. Hariri’s economic woes have led to problems in Lebanon where his party was in disarray and he had been forced to accept Hezbollah’s candidate for the Presidency on the 46th ballot. President Michel Aoun is a Catholic and a former army general.
But now Mohammed bin Nayef’s assets have been seized. He was seen in public at Prince Mansour bin Muqrin Al Saud’s funeral. Local sources say the helicopter he was in near the Yemeni border was shot down by the Saudi Air Force.
And now Prince Bandar, a close friend of the Bush Crime family, has been arrested too.
Saad Hariri’s father Rafik had been Lebanon’s Prime Minister but was assassinated. Hezbollah said they captured drone footage from the Israelis prior to the man’s murder. Israel and the corporate media blames Hezbollah and Iran. Hezbollah blames Israel.
Most people of every political persuasion in Lebanon believe Hariri is being held against his will. He has not been able to talk to political supporters in Lebanon or even family members who were willing to travel to Saudi Arabia.
What sparked all of this activity? Some think it was the victory of the Syrians and their allies in Russia and Hezbollah against Al Qaeda, ISIS and other thugs hired by Israel, the US and the Saudis. There is a rumor that in 10 days or so that Russia will demand US forces leave Syria. The US has been threatening Syrian forces that come too close to the Kurdish soldiers who are occupying Syrian land.
So we have many plots and we could even see another coup in Saudi Arabia. Israel has been practicing war with Hezbollah. War Games happen from time to time as their defeat in the 2006 Lebanon war deeply disturbed the Zionists.
China and Russia have been stockpiling gold. Russia does not need to stockpile oil but China has a 6 month supply according to the latest business reports. Are the Chinese preparing for war?
Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have asked their citizens to leave Lebanon. This could be a prelude to war but it also just as likely that they are trying to apply economic pressure to get Lebanon back into line after the US-Saudi defeat in Syria.
Before anyone cranks up a Mideast war, I would like to make a few points:
Hezbollah has missiles capable of flattening Haifa. The Israelis had to move their Haifa ammonia storage facility as a direct hit would have blown up their port. Haifa is a petrochemical center and would produce lots of secondary fires if hit by missiles.
Hezbollah has sent drones over Israel and mapped out targets. A prime target is the Israeli electrical grid which Hassan Nasrallah said could be taken down. It would take the Israelis 6 months to get their electricity back on.
Hezbollah has dozens of 252 man battalions which they plan to send through tunnels to points inside Israel. They can pre-position hundreds of rockets which can be fired as almost one shot one kill weapons at close range.
They have sufficient long range missiles to take out Israeli air bases and to attack Tel Aviv.
Hezbollah likes to stage surprises for the Israelis in a military operation. One of their 2006 surprises was an attack on an Israeli Navy ship using a Chinese C-802 missile. They now have Russian made anti-ship missiles with much larger payloads and greater range. Hezbollah will surprise the Israelis by striking high value targets either at sea or in the port of Haifa with Russian and Chinese missiles. They have an unknown quantity of these weapons. They upgraded their missiles as a price for helping Russia and Iran in Syria.
A ship carrying ammonia if hit by a missile would create a firestorm greater than one of those atomic bombs the US dropped on Japan.
Another couple of surprises would be their two (or more) 50 man suicide squads. They did not have these in 2006, They could go against vital and iconic Israeli assets inside Israel. These 2 operations would be written about for years. Hamas in 2009 used tunnels to send in a small squad to kill Israeli officers and senior sergeants at a training facility. But these men would be better trained and better armed. And there are 10 times as many men involved with more preparation.
If the war spreads to Iran and Syria, then …
Iran is mass producing Mach 14 and Mach 13 missiles. They got the designs from Russia. The US has no defense against any missile faster than Mach 10.
The Iranian backed Popular Militias in Iraq would attack US forces in Iraq after the American bases had been destroyed by missiles. Any soldiers not killed would be captured and shown on TV.
All American bases in US Central Command would be destroyed by missiles in the first five minutes. American soldiers not killed in Afghanistan would be captured and shown on TV.
The US Persian Gulf fleet would be sunk in the first two minutes. The Iranians would send out thousands of fast Zodiac boats to capture any surviving American sailors.
Those Iraqi Popular Militia forces could easily cross the border into Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. If there are no Americans in the area, the militia men could take down the Saudi Army with a little help from Iran. Try to buy oil after Iran gets control of the oil from Iraqi, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Kuwaiti.
Oil shipments out of the Persian Gulf and even other locations would be cut off. The Chinese have a 6 month supply, but the price for the rest of us would hit $200. This would cause a worldwide crash in stock and bond markets. We have more Unpayable Debts to cancel than anytime in history so we would face financial ruin. I would expect Nationwide Food Riots to be followed by the destruction of our cities.
The defeat of the US military will be decisive. One result will be that the Federal Reserve Note will no longer be an international reserve currency. Currently, if Germany buys oil from the Saudis, they use US dollars. No more. In the past the US was able to print dollars and buy free things from overseas. Jim Rickards says when foreigners dump the dollar for the IMF’s SDR that the price of imported things will go up 500% which will impoverish the bottom 90% of America. This will happen anyway but losing a war in the Mideast will make this happen a lot sooner.
As I write this, it is Veteran Day. World War I ended on 11-11-1918. But the war of the Elite, the Bankers and the Jewish Lobby has waged against us has never ended. I grew up on military bases and met many who told me of the friends and mates they lost. I say Enough. All the Elite ever did was rob us, ridicule us and betray us. I say No More. Consent to self-destruction has been withdrawn.