East Coast Winter Storm Next Week?

The Weather Channel 

The feel of winter is going to carry over into the first week of spring if you live east of the Rockies. Not only are temperatures going to plunge below average, but we are also watching for the potential of an East Coast winter storm.

Here’s what we know right now regarding this potential storm and the uncertainties.   

Potential Storm Next Week: What We Know Right Now

Although we are confident in the forecast for below-average temperatures into the new week ahead, we are less confident about the potential impacts from a storm system developing near or off the East Coast next week. Keep in mind, it is not unusual to have a high degree of uncertainty when forecasting a potential winter storm three to four days away.

Computer models have suggested a few outcomes in the track of the storm over the last few days. Pictured to the right are three scenarios for the track of the low and the potential impacts they would bring. The timeframe for any potential storm appears to be Tuesday into Wednesday.

• Track #1: If the low moves near or just off the East Coast, we would likely see a moderate to high impact storm with the potential for strong winds, snow and/or rain affecting portions of the Eastern Seaboard.
• Track #2: In this scenario, the low moves a little farther out to sea, but close enough to the coast to bring moderate to high impacts for a few areas, and low to moderate impacts for most other areas near the coast. Some high winds would be expected in a few areas and the precipitation would likely be all snow.
• Track #3: This would be the least threatening outcome. The storm system still exists, but tracks far enough out to sea to only bring low or no impacts at all.

(MORE: What is “Bombogenesis?”)

Although we can’t completely rule out any of the scenarios at this time, it appears the most likely outcome is a track similar to track #2. With that said, below is our current forecast.

Our Current Forecast

Keeping in mind the uncertainties explained above, here’s our current forecast.

Tuesday: 

• Impacts: The upper-level disturbance associated with the storm brings light to moderate snows from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians. Meanwhile, low pressure intensifies off the coast of the Carolinas while tracking northward. As a result, there is the potential for snow and wind to spread along the I-95 corridor Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. The strength of the winds and snowfall amounts are uncertain at this time and will depend on the exact track/intensity of the low pressure system.
• Cities: Cincinnati | New York | Philadelphia | Washington

Wednesday: 

• Impacts: Low pressure is likely to be at its peak intensity off the coast of New England. Potential for heavy snow and wind across eastern New England, particularly southeast Massachusetts and Downeast Maine. Again, snowfall amounts and the strength of the winds are uncertain. That said, some computer models are showing the potential for blizzard conditions in parts of eastern New England. High surf, beach erosion and coastal flooding are also possible.
• Cities: Boston | New York | Portland, Maine | Providence, R.I.

In case you are wondering why high uncertainty exists less than a week away, read below for a little Meteorology 101.

Meteorology 101: Why Uncertainty Exists

Atmospheric disturbances responsible for spawning a potential future East Coast winter storm are many times thousands of miles away several days in advance of the storm. Sometimes, the future disturbances haven’t even formed yet or break apart from a larger weather system.

In the case of Tuesday and Wednesday’s potential storm, this holds true. This is why the output from various computer models can vary wildly from run to run.

Given the complexity involved in computing the future evolution of this type of situation, we should expect a high level of uncertainty until we get a little closer to the time frame for this potential storm.

The animation above and to the right is the computer model forecast of upper-atmospheric disturbances (light green, yellow, orange shadings) in the atmosphere from Thursday to Tuesday next week over North America and the North Pacific. Without getting into details, you can see that the atmosphere above us is complex. How these impulses track, interact and break apart dictate how future weather conditions will evolve.

Another typical uncertainty, particularly with early spring storms, is how much cold air is available for the storm to tap and produce wintry weather. In this case, it appears the air mass will be plenty cold enough, so that is not major factor.

What Should You Do?

Unless your plans are especially sensitive to weather disruptions, it’s probably best to sit tight and not reschedule your activities or travel plans until the forecast becomes clearer.

Of course, it’s never a bad idea to check your preparedness in case a major storm of any kind strikes your community. Although winter is almost over and you may not use them this time, items such as batteries could be useful to have on hand for the Atlantic hurricane season, which begins in just over two months.

(MORE: Safety and Preparedness | WeatherReady Winter)

In the meantime, check back with The Weather Channel and weather.com for updates on this potential East Coast winter storm.

MORE ON WEATHER.COM: Deepest Snow in all 50 States

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