With around 12 days remaining in the 60-day Israel ceasefire with Lebanon, Israel continues to commit multiple violations per day. A number of airstrikes are being conducted in southern and eastern Lebanon, along with a systematic destruction of civilian homes in villages near the Israeli border.
Israel is supposed to entirely withdraw its military from Lebanese territory by the end of the ceasefire. The US special envoy has “guaranteed” that will happen, though there remain substantial questions about that, and the places Israel has left have been more or less destroyed during their occupation.
Whether the pullout happens in the next couple of weeks or not, Lebanon will have it’s work cut out for it in trying to rebuild after the Israeli invasion. Their economy wasn’t in great shape in the first place, and Israel has destroyed much of the infrastructure across the south, as well causing massive damage elsewhere.
PM-designate Nawaf Salam, who was only designated to try to form Lebanon’s next government the day before, is promising to see destroyed homes rebuilt and for Lebanon to start a “new phase of progress and opportunities.”
Salam, whose nomination was supported by a considerable margin of MPs, promises reforms and says he will work for a “full Israeli withdrawal” from Lebanon. He says his intention is to extend state authority across all of Lebanon.
But before he does anything, he’ll have to form a government. That means putting together a majority coalition in Lebanon’s parliament. Though enough MPs were comfortable with his nomination as a replacement for predecessor Najib Mikati, that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll be on board with joining a government.
Selling enough groups on joining is no small task. Lebanon has 128 MPs, so Salam only needs 65 to form a government. But he has no party himself, and even the biggest blocs have fewer than 20 MPs, so he’ll need quite a few small blocs to cross that threshold.
Signs are that Salam will be trying to form a government without any of the Shi’ite parties, meaning two of the three largest blocs, Hezbollah and the Amal Movement, are likely to be excluded. How he’ll offer enough cabinet positions to get enough tiny blocs and independents on board remains to be seen.
New President Joseph Aoun is getting some promises of international aid for Lebanon’s reconstruction, which is a start for rebuilding. The damage appears enormous though, and even now the full scope of what Israel has destroyed, and indeed will destroy in the days to come, hasn’t been fully accounted for. This could be an enormous challenge for Lebanon for years to come.