Iran is expected to attack Israel by week’s end, or at least within the coming days. However, the degree of telegraphing has almost taken the teeth out of the threat and what Iran hopes to accomplish in its retaliation.
“Iran is calibrating its plans for a major retaliatory strike against Israel to send a message — but not spark a regional war that compels Washington to respond, the U.S. assesses,” Politico reports of what’s expected. “Biden administration officials judge that Iran is planning a larger-than-usual aerial attack on Israel in the coming days, one that will likely feature a mix of missiles and drone strikes, said two U.S. officials who were granted anonymity to detail sensitive intelligence assessments.”
The Pentagon has apparently moved naval assets closer to Israel in expectation of Iranian strikes (or else major attacks from their proxies like Hezbollah or the Houthis), including the USS Eisenhower aircraft carrier which is patrolling the Red Sea. Israel’s Channel 14 also reports, “The US military deployed a missile ship with advanced defense capabilities near the shores of Israel.”
The US has said it is ready to coordinate a response with Israel if it is hit; however, the defense consensus is that Iran is unlikely to send missiles and drones directly from its soil. CBS has newly cited two US officials who say that “a major Iranian attack against Israel was expected as soon as Friday, possibly to include more than 100 drones and dozens of missiles aimed at military targets inside the country.”
But so far the past days have been a constant avalanche of speculation as an attack remains ‘imminent’. The US State Department is taking action, issuing a security warning to all government employees and their families for the US Embassy in Jerusalem. Travel restrictions have been placed on their movements, after the embassy has been on edge ever since Israel’s unprecedented April 1st attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus.
“Out of an abundance of caution, U.S. government employees and their family members are restricted from personal travel outside the greater Tel Aviv, … Jerusalem, and Be’er Sheva areas until further notice,” US Embassy security alert, issued Thursday says.
“The U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem reminds U.S. citizens of the continued need for caution and increased personal security awareness as security incidents often take place without warning,” the alert continued. “The security environment remains complex and can change quickly depending on the political situation and recent events.”
Several other countries have issued travel warnings to their citizens, while bracing for a possible bigger war in the Middle East, including Russia and India of late. The UK and France have reportedly called on their citizens to leave immediately, citing an inevitable attack from Iran.
Meanwhile the speculation continues as to the timing, with The Wall Street Journal on Friday reporting that “Israel is preparing for a direct attack from Iran on southern or northern Israel as soon as Friday or Saturday, according to a person familiar with the matter.”
However, even US intelligence doesn’t have a crystal ball. The WSJ follows with this caveat: “A person briefed by the Iranian leadership, however, said that while plans to attack are being discussed, no final decision has been made.”
Starting Thursday, Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla, commander of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), arrived in Israel amid reports that the US and Israel could respond jointly to any imminent Iranian attack on Israel. Alarmingly, Ynet reports Friday that “The IDF and Mossad approved plans for an attack on Iran in the event that Israel would come under attack from Iranian territory. Additionally, the coordination between the U.S. and Israeli militaries, has increased.”