Oil prices could rally to $100 a barrel if Middle East tensions ‘really kick off,’ analyst says


Oil prices could soon skyrocket to more than $100 a barrel amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, one oil analyst told CNBC Friday.

Crude futures surged to highs not seen since December 2014 earlier in the week, underpinned by greater geopolitical uncertainty in Syria and elevated concerns over the prospect of imminent military action by Western powers.  

“I don’t think its unfeasible to see triple-digit oil prices at some point this year if things really kick off in the Middle East,” Anish Kapadia, founder and managing director of Akap Energy, told CNBC’s “Street Signs” on Friday.

He added market participants had been “laughed out the room” when they projected crude futures to reach either $60 or $70 a barrel six months ago. But heightened tensions in the Middle East had since brought about the prospect of oil prices soaring to more than $100 a barrel later this year, he added.

Geopolitical premium ‘alive and well’

Both benchmarks were on track to post their biggest weekly gain in more than eight months on Friday, shortly after President Donald Trump‘s comments about potential missile strikes and reports of dwindling global oil stocks.

Brent crude was trading at $72.26 during lunchtime deals on Friday, up around 0.3 percent, while WTI traded at $67.35, approximately 0.4 percent higher. Both benchmarks have gained about $5 since the start of the week.

An uptick in oil prices followed incendiary comments from Trump on Wednesday. The U.S. president tweeted missiles “will be coming,” in response to a suspected chemical attack in Syria over the weekend. He has since sought to dial back such explosive rhetoric, raising the prospect that an attack on Syria may not be as imminent as it first appeared.

Nonetheless, world leaders continued to mull over military action in the war-torn country on Friday.

“Trump’s will-he-or-won’t-he antics are here to stay and will, therefore, ensure that the geopolitical risk premium remains alive and well,” Stephen Brennock, oil analyst at PVM Oil Associates, said in a research note Friday.

He added oil prices were likely to continue to extend their recent gains in the near term.

However, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said Friday it “remained to be seen” whether recently elevated oil prices could be sustained.

In the Paris-based organization’s latest monthly report, the group left its forecast for oil demand unchanged at 99.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2018. The IEA’s outlook for supply also remained the same, as it projected non-OPEC growth to reach 1.8 million bpd this year.


Start the Conversation

Your email address will not be published.