Tuesday Morning September 5:
We got a satellite pass about 11:45 pm Monday night. The data show that the Mt.Emily conflagration was stopped yesterday afternoon, but the Bosley Butte containment break grew north and west towards Carpenterville. I couldn’t get it on the map, but it’s 11 miles to Agness.
The incident meteorologist is predicting SW winds this morning 9-12 mph and increasing moisture and cloud cover in the afternoon. Much cooler temperatures in the 70’s to low 80’s. Tomorrow they are concerned about thunderstorms producing winds and lightning, but only a 10% chance of a wetting rain.
PM2.5 in Brookings is 138 Unhealthy at 4 am. The GoldBeach instrument appears to be offline.
Morning Briefing September 5, 2017
11 hours ago
It was a harrowing day that left Brookings shaken and in tears. Firefighters attacked the blaze on Mt.Emily with all they had. Eyewitness accounts say that the helicopters were in the air fighting valiantly.
We woke this morning to scary satellite data showing that under a NNE wind, hot and dry conditions, the fire had taken Mt Emily as well as advanced towards Cave Junction. Evacuation Orders in JoCo were called. Brookings reeled under hot skies raining ash, and hazardous air.
Satellite performance was spotty and we couldn’t tell if the fire had jumped line in the Mt Emily region, but it was clear that S. Bank was threatened. Sheriff Ward reported that officers began door to door warnings around 4 am.
Later more information came out. Nearly simultaneously around 1-2 pm we got a drone IR map and a satellite update. At that time it became clear that there was breech of containment at Bosley Butte and the line on Mt Emily had also been jumped. The fire now threatened the S. Bank of the Chetco, the Winchuck, the north part of Carpenterville Rd, and the Oak Flat area in JoCo. The fire approached 170,000 ac.
We got one more satellite flyover just after 2 pm, and level 3 evacuations were called on Carpenterville Rd north of CapeFerrelo around 5 pm. The latest satellite data remains that from a little after 2 pm as of when I started writing this. Hopefully there will be more soon.
By about 5 pm a westerly flow began to cool the region and clear the air. Now, after an otherworldly sunset, we are faced with the strange conundrum of open windows while a fire rages 95% uncontained all around us. Friends are wondering if their homes remain, and others are scared as active to very active fire behavior is predicted for tonight.
Meanwhile, neighbors are helping neighbors, friends are helping friends and strangers are helping strangers. There are more tales of friendships made and community built in the midst of this tragedy than can be told, and the world looks on largely unaware.
See the pinned post for all the details.
Looks to me like it grew about 20,000 ac last night and today, based on the latest satellite which is showing detections through 12:30 pm. Not sure how accurate the satellite info is for that, but it should give a rough idea for those who have been wondering. The last flight ir was Friday night at about 143,000 ac, and I don’t have a handle on Saturday’s growth.
As of 11pm last night, it got to 167,513
September 4 at 9:09pm
Planned Actions
Branch I: Continue suppression efforts to check fire spread from entering the Winchuck drainage. Structure Protection may be required. Implement point protection strategies that have a high probability of success. Continue to prep indirect line, identify contingency lines, as well as coordination with wildland and structural resources. Continue with mop up opportunities around structures.
Branch II: Identify, prioritize, and engage spot fires when commensurate with objectives. Structural Protection may be required. Continue to improve direct dozer line and handline as resources allow. Prepare identified roads for potential firing and holding.
Branch III: Establish old Biscuit dozer lines. Continue with line construction to connect Divisions O and R. Prepare roads for burnout. Scout for direct and indirect lines to the North and East. Build direct and indirect lines where possible. Continue to scout for direct and indirect to the North and East, as well as improve roads for future containment spread to the North-Northeast as the perimeter encroaching on the wilderness boundary.
Branch IV: Implement structure protection in Oak Flat, Store Gultch, McCaleb’s Ranch, and Footbridge. Scout direct and indirect lines in the Illinois River area. Continue to open previous lines from previous fires in the area with heavy equipment and coordinate with local Forest Service and Oregon Department of Forestry resources to develop a plan for containment of the fire east of the Kalmiopsis Wilderness.
Maintain current coordination with Curry County Sheriff and Josephine County Sheriff regarding evacuation levels while the Oregon State Fire Marshal Task Forces continue structure evaluation and preparation.
Utilize Aircraft to check fire spread when possible.
Projected Incident Activity
12 hours-Active to very active fire behavior. RH recovery poor. Torching and crown runs possible with spotting to 0.5 mile. Major runs likely with alignment of wind and terrain.
24 hours- Very active fire behavior. Surface spread, backing and flanking. Torching and crown runs possible with spotting to 0.3 mile. Major runs likely with alignment of wind and terrain.
48 hours- Moderate to active fire behavior. Surface spread, backing, flanking. Torching and crown runs possible with spotting to 0.2 mile. Increased Rates of Spread and Flame Length with strong, gusty outflow winds from t-storms possible.
72 hours- Moderate fire behavior. Surface spread with backing/flanking. Isolated torching possible.
Anticipated after 72 hours: Moderate fire behavior. Surface spread with backing/flanking. Isolated torching possible.
Remarks
On 9/6/2017 an incoming IMT will take command of Branch IV. Inbrief will occur on 9/5.
Area Command has been assigned as of 9/5/2017 at 0600.
Acreage and updated perimeter are estimated from a DRTI flown about 100 on 9/4.
The Office of the State Fire Marshal is operating under a Delegation of Authority on lands protected by the following jurisdictions having authority: City of Brookings Fire Department, Cape Ferrelo RFPD, and Winchuck RFPD. Additionally, Office of the State Fire Marshal is operating on unprotected land under a Delegation of Authority from the Curry County Board of Commissioners.
Current Weather
Weather Concerns
Fire Weather Watch in effect from 7AM Wednesday morning through 11PM Wednesday night for abundant lighting on dry fuels. upper level ridge over the region will remain in place over the next several days as remnants of Tropical Storm Lidia move northward along the CaliforniaCoast. This moisture will begin moving into the area Tuesday and become more abundant Wednesday into Thursday. The result will be winds backing to southwesterly Tuesday morning with increasing clouds through the afternoon. ON Wednesday the moisture will be sufficient to support chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Concerns with thunderstorms that develop will be the lightning along with gusty and erratic winds from nearby thunderstorms which do not directly cross the fire area. The chance of wetting rain Wednesday and Wednesday night is 10 percent. Overnight humidity recovery will rise to 40 percent or greater Wednesday and Thursday nights.