President Daniel Noboa appears to have stolen Ecuador’s elections. Now he’s poised to consolidate control of a system that has benefited cartels and multinational corporations, including his family business, at the expense of ordinary citizens. And Washington likes what it sees.
Watch The Grayzone’s special video on the well-documented ties between Noboa’s companies and transnational drug cartels here .
On April 13, 2025, Ecuador’s National Electoral Council declared incumbent President Daniel Noboa the winner of the presidential runoff, a result his rival, leftist Luisa González, denounced as “massive fraud.”
If Noboa achieves what appears to be an illicit victory, he could consolidate total control over a state weakened by austerity and corrupted by the deep infiltration of transnational drug cartels, a criminal network deeply intertwined with his family’s business.
González, who led several polls by 6 points until Friday, has demanded a vote-by-vote recount.
In doing so, it pointed out irregularities that include, among others:
- 18 polling stations in their strongholds relocated at the last minute
- Bonds paid in cash with IMF funds before the second round
- “False positives” of ballots that forced the closure of polling stations where she had a wide lead
- The ban on several foreign observer groups
- Martial law was imposed in seven provinces, in favor of González.
- All Ecuadorians residing in Venezuela were denied the right to vote.
- Noboa campaigned illegally during his term, defying court orders.
Andrés Arauz, a former presidential candidate and close ally of González, presented copies of altered ballots, with irregularities and lacking the required validation signatures. These ballots were counted and, in some ways, always favored Noboa. This could explain why the use of cell phone cameras was banned at polling stations. These strange occurrences echo previous allegations of fraud, clearly documented with photos and videos from the first round.
Given Ecuador’s enormous mineral wealth and the timing of the election results announced amid global competition for copper, oil, and rare earth metals, the country’s already fragile sovereignty and institutional integrity now hang in the balance.
Noboa plunges Ecuador into violence and corruption linked to cartels.
Noboa’s victory reflects the dominance of an elite rooted abroad. Born in Miami, the incumbent president is the scion of a family empire rooted in the system of global capitalism and operating with complete impunity . As exposed in the Panama Papers, his family business includes Lanfranco Holdings, linked to three failed cocaine shipments to Europe . Companies owned by Noboa owe $98 million in taxes to the country he now governs, and he has publicly stated that he has no intention of paying.
Noboa’s term continues the neoliberal shift led by former presidents Lenín Moreno and Guillermo Lasso, who unleashed a wave of austerity in the country, gutting public services and state institutions while cooperating with Washington’s national security agenda, most notably the handover of Julian Assange to British authorities.
The weakening of the state, especially in marginalized areas, opened the door to cartel infiltration, from ports to power structures. Investigative journalists Andrés Durán and Anderson Boscán, both Ecuadorian, have methodically exposed the links between the state and cartels, which transformed Ecuador into a hub for drug trafficking and money laundering, while plunging society into violence. However, this duo’s journalistic work forced them into exile to save their lives , highlighting the risks faced by dissidents in Noboa’s Ecuador.
After an initial infiltration by the Ecuadorian state, the cartels transformed, shifting from monolithic transnational syndicates to a loose federation of specialized franchises that coordinate arms trafficking and the flow of money. Given their compartmentalization, it is nearly impossible to stop the trafficking and supply chain, as a new link always emerges, and those caught have limited accountability and knowledge. These networks now dominate Ecuador’s fragmented and balkanized territory, with minimal state resistance.
The resulting climate of violence and austerity keeps the population in a state of shock. To prevent the Ecuadorian working class from seeking an alternative in the nationalist left represented by González, the specter of socialist Venezuela is constantly invoked as a warning, warning that any break with the neoliberal model imposed by Washington will lead to economic ruin.
While mainstream media outlets portray Noboa as a “moderate” politician fighting cartel hitmen with a firm hand, the facts on the ground are overwhelming: 46 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants in 2023, 10,700 extortions in 2024—numbers far worse than those of Venezuela under Maduro—and 220 tons of cocaine seized, most of it shipped from private ports, all of which marks an upward trend over the years.
These ports are overseen by a customs intelligence unit with an annual budget of just $33,633, according to journalist Andrés Durán, in the face of drug trafficking worth millions, billions, or even trillions. As of July 2024, only $5,677, or 17% of that sum, had been disbursed to combat what is perhaps the world’s largest transnational criminal network.
Noboa has attacked street gangs but left the cartels’ financial structures intact. His anti-money laundering bill, urgently submitted to Congress, hid provisions that were previously rejected. Lawmakers argued that the proposal did not provide effective tools to combat money laundering and would have introduced new tax burdens.
In Ecuador, military forces arrest and disappear minors, as in the infamous case of the “Malvinas 4,” taking advantage of the legal excuse of a preventive presidential pardon. At the same time, corruption and drug trafficking cases are manipulated to protect those involved and ensure their impunity.
The numbers prove it: austerity fuels the cartels, while social investment strengthens institutions and offers alternatives. That investment, promised by Noboa in his first campaign, never materialized. Since then, there has only been a “stick,” no “carrot,” and the situation has worsened, with the years 2024 and 2025 showing the worst security data in Republican history. In the run-up to the elections, blackouts plagued the country , and public services like healthcare and education continue to decline .
Noboa’s “victory” defies the polls and delights US intelligence.
Noboa’s support base has mobilized against the return of a leftist nationalist leader like former Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa. Despite a stronger and more functional state at the time, cases of corruption and repression against indigenous anti-mining activists fragmented and weakened the left. Except for one midterm election, they have lost six consecutive races.
But this time was different. The toxic presence of the Miami-born Noboa and his ruinous, corruption-tainted term have managed to unite left and right factions against him and in favor of González. This means that the indigenous movement has converged with the Correa-led left after more than a decade of bitterness. Even right-wing military veteran and former presidential candidate Jan Topic and right-wing congresswoman Ana Galarza have expressed their support for González.
Just a week before the election, most polls showed González with enormous momentum, with a lead of up to 6 points and an upward trend. His rise came after a dominant performance in the debate, in which he harshly attacked the president for the documented ties between his family business and the cartels, and challenged him to take a drug test “right here, after the debate .” Noboa, visibly shaken, ignored the challenge and changed the subject.
Polls (April 7-9, 2025, according to El Universo):
- TresPuntoZero (Apr 7) : González 52.87%, Noboa 47.13%
- MaLuk (Apr 7) : González 53.47%, Noboa 46.53%
- I deamos (Apr 7) : González 52.14%, Noboa 47.86%
- Pedro Cango (Apr 9) : González 52.1%, Noboa 47.9% (±2.8%)
- Electoral Vote (Apr 7) : Noboa 53.74%, González 46.26%
- Cedatos (Apr 7) : Noboa 61.08%, González 38.92%
González’s fraud accusations helped expose a fundamentally corrupt system. Ecuador’s central electoral council, known as the CNE, is headed by Diana Atamaint, whose brother, Kar Atamaint, was appointed by Noboa to a diplomatic post as Ecuador’s consul in Queens , New York. Of the five members of the electoral council, four are government loyalists.
Faced with mounting pressure for Atamaint to resign, and with his term expiring on November 20, 2024, Noboa sent police to surround the CNE offices and prevent the new council members from taking office, thus forcibly extending Atamaint’s term.
Meanwhile, as The Grayzone reported , Noboa’s prosecutor, Diana Salazar, has selectively targeted political opponents while shielding her associates—including banks linked to Lasso and Noboa—from money laundering investigations.
In 2022, the United States signed a bilateral treaty with Ecuador allowing it to establish unlimited military bases with full legal immunity for personnel. In the days leading up to the 2025 election, anonymous Trump administration intelligence officials stated that they preferred Noboa over González because he had guaranteed them the permanent right to a military base. Their statement helps explain why Washington has been so reluctant to criticize Noboa’s blatant electoral fraud.
González’s demand for a recount challenges a powerful Miami-based elite that lords its hand over local institutions, imposing its will on millions of Ecuadorians without their consent. Consider this: As a child, Álvaro Noboa—father of the current president—studied alongside Winthrop Rockefeller and King Farouk II of Egypt at a private school in Switzerland. That’s Daniel Noboa’s level of wealth and influence. Another example: Leonardo Campana, the president’s cousin and Lionel Messi’s teammate at Inter Miami, is reportedly richer than Messi (or Ronaldo).
This is the context in which Daniel Noboa operates. He is not a man free from interests. He and his family are those interests.
If Noboa succeeds in stealing the presidential election, he will consolidate total control over what remains of the state, leaving Ecuador at the intersection of cartel infiltration, corporate exploitation, and U.S. geopolitical dominance.
Noboa is a U.S. citizen. Like all U.S. citizens, he has sworn to defend the United States above all other nations. His second term will allow him to fulfill that oath.