Worst-case global pandemic scenario: 700,000 dead, $500 billion in economic losses

Homeland Security Newswire

The worldwide spread of a serious infectious disease could result in pandemic-related deaths of 700,000 and annual economic losses of $500 billion, according to a study in the Bulletin of the World Health OrganizationVictoria Fan, an assistant professor in the Office of Public Health Studiesat the Myron B. Thompson School of Social Workat the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa, is lead author of a new study which applied a theoretical model to calculate the expected number of deaths and economic losses in rare pandemic scenarios.  

The study was based on Fan’s work using impact and economic evaluations. The dollar figure of economic losses is much higher than those found in previous studies, which, according to the study, means “there is an unmet need for greater investment in preparedness against major epidemics and pandemics.”

Hawaii notes that the projection of total pandemic-related costs of $500 billion, or 0.6 percent of global income, falls within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s estimates of the costs of global warming. This implies that the losses from pandemic risk would be similar in magnitude to those of climate change.

The model may also be applied to other outbreaks, such as malaria, or catastrophic events, including nuclear attack. “Policymakers may be able to estimate the economic losses that come with rare but potentially devastating events,” said Fan. “We hope this can lead to more appropriate adjustments for national policies and investments, and international collaborations on pandemic preparedness.”

— Read more in Victoria Y. Fan et al., “Pandemic risk: how large are the expected losses,” Bulletin of the World Health Organization 96 (2018): 129–34 (doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.2471/BLT.17.19958)


2 thoughts on “Worst-case global pandemic scenario: 700,000 dead, $500 billion in economic losses

  1. A century ago a very real pandemic killed 35 million people
    world wide out of a total global population of less than
    2 billion .
    That was a pandemic!
    This is nothing but fear porn brought to you by you masters
    encouraging you to all be good little boys and girls and
    get your vaccinations.

  2. “Worst-case global pandemic scenario: 700,000 dead…”

    Gross understatement.

    We all know they’re shooting for hundreds of millions*, if not billions.

    *I’m talking with JUST a global pandemic… not counting the myriad OTHER ways they’re killing us.

    They’d have done it already if they had been able to find the perfect, CONTROLLABLE virus by now, imo.

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