President Biden approved in March a new nuclear strategic plan that includes preparations for a simultaneous nuclear war with Russia, China, and North Korea, The New York Times reported on Tuesday.
The US nuclear strategy is updated about every four years or so and is highly classified. The Times described the new strategy as the “first to examine in detail whether the United States is prepared to respond to nuclear crises that break out simultaneously or sequentially, with a combination of nuclear and nonnuclear weapons.”
US officials, including Pranay Vaddi, an arms control official on the National Security Council, have made public comments about the changes to the strategy. Vaddi said in June that the new strategy emphasizes “the need to deter Russia, the [People’s Republic of China] and North Korea simultaneously.”
The strategy also focuses on China for the first time, as the Pentagon has claimed China could increase its nuclear stockpile to 1,500 by 2035. Current estimates put China’s arsenal at about 500.
China’s arsenal is still just a fraction of what the US and Russia possess. The State Department said in July that the US has 5,748 warheads, including 2,000 that are retired and awaiting dismantlement.
According to the Arms Control Association, Russia has 5,580 warheads, including 1,200 that are retired and awaiting dismantlement. Russia has 1,549 nuclear warheads that are deployed, and the US deploys 1,419.
The New START treaty between the US and Russia caps the deployment of warheads at 1,550. While the treaty has broken down due to tensions over the war in Ukraine, both sides have committed to staying within the deployment limits, but it’s unclear if they will once New START officially expires in 2026.
While China has significantly fewer warheads than the US and Russia, a nuclear exchange between the US and China could still be enough to end life as we know it. Despite the risk of a US-China war quickly turning nuclear, US military officials are openly planning for a direct clash with Beijing and claim that the US could “win.”
The nuclear strategy’s focus on China aligns with the Pentagon’s 2022 National Defense Strategy, which names Beijing as the top threat facing the US, with Russia coming in second.