ABC News Australia – by Greg Hoy
A rapid acceleration in automation technology, including cheaper and more advanced robotics, could see more than 5 million Australians lose their jobs, an expert in machine learning says.
Professor Michael Osborne of the Oxford Martin School at Oxford University says almost half of all jobs in industrialised nations like Australia are at risk of redundancy over the next two decades.
“The very different thing we’re seeing now is machines increasingly entering occupations reliant upon thinking,” Dr Osborne told the 7.30 program.
“I work in the field of artificial intelligence and we are seeing the rapid development of a lot of technologies.”
Sydney dockworker and father of three, Ben Bartolo, is experiencing that first hand – he is about to lose his job at Port Botany.
“Patricks are going to bring automation into the terminal, where they are not going to need my position anymore,” the 34-year-old straddle driver said.
It has been 16 years since Mr Bartolo’s employer, Patrick Stevedores, triggered the historic waterfront dispute by slashing and restructuring its workforce.
We set out to identify which occupations are most susceptible to automation and found that 47 per cent of current US employment is at high risk of automation.
Now Patricks is about to deploy driverless robots to take over cargo handling operations at Port Botany.
Mr Bartolo is just one of 180 who have been told their jobs must go.
Paddy Crumlin, national secretary of the Maritime Union, is furious Patricks only announced its automation plans after dockworkers had settled their latest enterprise agreement.
“Virtually the whole world changed overnight,” Mr Crumlin said.
“You know, [they said] ‘we’ve halved the workforce, we’ve got rid of human beings. Hurrah, hurrah. We are world’s best practice.’ I don’t think that’s best business practice.”
Almost half of US employment ‘at risk of automation’
About 700 industrial robots are now imported into Australia annually and more than 1 million are already hard at work across industrialised nations.
Professor Osborne and his research colleagues are increasingly concerned about the rate of automation and the job losses, and the increased social inequality it could trigger.
“This historical trend we’ve seen of being able to find new uses for human labour, create new jobs even faster than technology makes them redundant, that may not continue,” Dr Osborne said.
“We set out to identify which occupations are most susceptible to automation and found that 47 per cent of current US employment is at high risk of automation.”
It is a forlorn forecast Dr Osborne believes is equally relevant for Australia.
“A fairly similar fraction of employment is at high risk of automation over the next 20 years. So I believe that will be the case for Australia as well,” Dr Osborne said.
Such claims have triggered vigorous debate.
“We need to be very cautious about making big conclusions about jobs at risk,” Professor James Bailey of Melbourne University said.
“There’s a next wave of computerisation coming and it’s a very powerful technology. The kinds of technologies, I think, are going to assist humans in the types of decisions they reach.
“So I view it as a positive that will free up people’s time to work on higher level activities.”
However, machine learning specialist Professor David Dowe of Monash University broadly agrees with the Oxford researchers.
“All sorts of things we humans do and we thought are the preserve of humans are likely to be automated,” he said.
“How quickly this will happen, I don’t know, but I think it’s very important that we discuss this sort of stuff and anticipate it.”
‘Baxter’ the $35,000 robot helping companies cut costs
Today, 85 per cent of robots in Australia work outside the car industry, once the robot’s exclusive domain.
“You have to adopt evolution of technology,” Chris Troman, general manager of Australia’s biggest brickworks, Austral Bricks, said.
“Those that continue to evolve their businesses and factories and embrace anything that’s available to them to be more efficient and more competitive will always survive and thrive.”
Austral says its heavy reliance on robots and automation today has dramatically reduced workplace injuries and labour costs.
“We’re in a very competitive environment. There’s a constant drive to reduce our input costs into our business. That allows us to deliver cheaper product to the end user,” Mr Troman said.
And costs are falling as rapidly as robot capabilities rise. A new generation humanoid robot called Baxter is a prime example.
The first of his species to arrive in Australia, Baxter will be your slave for just $35,000.
“In the US, where Baxter was born, there are at last count 190 companies that have installed Baxter,” importer Peter Birnbaum of Training Systems Australia said.
“In the UK it’s sorting apples. We have one company in the UK that is seriously looking at installing 1,000 Baxters.”
To many that simply sounds like science fiction – but to Sydney dockworker Mr Bartolo, it has become a harsh reality.
“I’m just a worker that wants to come to work and do my job and maintain a living for my family,” he said. “So, automation – it feels cold.”
Mr Crumlin of the MUA agrees.
“Consumption is predicated upon jobs,” he said.
“In our society human beings drive growth.
“The whole thing is distorted. It says business values prevail over social values. There needs to be a check and a balance over how these things are introduced and why.”
I have already met pople who can take a 100 thousand a year job talking to these robots. And do all there work online from oversea’s. Not even in the Country were the robots are. So. Learn to work with them the day is long over when every new job created 7 more jobs in the city. Today every new job cost 3 old jobs in the city. The diference between 1960 and today.