Author: David Haggith

The Great Recession

All three major stock-market indices completed three consecutive weeks of falling today as we head into fall next week. The NASDAQ, as you see in the opening graph, has set up a clear trend of perfectly aligned closings this week.

This summary of the market in September — the bullseye for my target dates for the market’s big fail — will be short but sour, as I try to focus my writing time on my next Patron Post. I just could not resist commenting on this week’s decisive market close. Continue reading “Stocks are Falling into Fall”

The Great Recession

This graph shows where my mind goes every time I ask myself how far the S&P 500 is likely to fall before it finds a solid bottom.

As you know, I don’t make predictions based on charts, but clearly there is intense convergence of longterm support around the 2,000 level and strong indication of a subliminal desire in the market to keep plumbing the bottom to find that depth. Continue reading “Technically, This is Where I Think the S&P Will Find Strong Support and a Final Resting Place”

The Great Recession

Dave Portnoy is shaking his fist at the stock market, daring it to give him a bigger pounding than it already has — telling his gambling fans how the $700 million he lost on Thursday, and the four-million he’s lost “in a f—ing blink” over the week is just a flesh wound, a mere scratch.

If it’s “just a scratch,” he’s soon going to look like he took a naked marathon run through the blackberry patch. So, it’s a good thing he doesn’t appear to be too sober. He’s going to need a lot more anesthesia before his downhill run is over. Continue reading “Bullheaded Dave Portnoy Gets Pounded with His Own Hammer”

The Great Recession

I’ve been saying the stock market will take a turn for the worst sometime between mid-August and October. Numerous market metrics now show a market that looks ready to turn over. The bear may soon be back in charge.  Continue reading “Stock Market’s Caged Bear about to Rattle Himself Loose!”

The Great Recession

The Coronacrisis has been a boon for America’s wealthiest dozen, taking their aggregate wealth over the top of a trillion dollars. One think tank refers to them as the “Oligarchic Dozen”:

“The rich get richer” doesn’t even begin to tell the story these days. According to the Institute for Policy Studies, the wealth of the top 12 billionaires in the U.S. recently exploded to more than one trillion dollars — yes, 13 digits…. “This is simply too much economic and political power in the hands of twelve people. From the point of view of a democratic self-governing society, this represents an Oligarchic Dozen….” Continue reading “Coronacrisis Turns Buyback Billionaires into the Trillion-Dollar Dozen”

The Great Recession

Measured by the common man (or common girl), we’re on the road to ruin. The US has been in decline for decades, but you can’t see that by looking at stocks. You can’t tell it from those who lie about the economy to make their living, but look at longterm real numbers, and you see an empire in decline that just got its wobbly legs kicked out by COVID-19. Continue reading “US in Longterm Economic Decline”

The Great Recession

Spin it up, Boys! Spin it up high!

The Labor Department should go into the money-laundering business because they own the fastest-spinning, number-washing machine out there.  Continue reading “Labor Dept. Trumps Its Own Numbers”

The Great Recession

When dinosaurs went extinct, mammals gained opportunity to flourish. Crises for some bring opportunity for others who can adapt to benefit from new environments. I try to enable my readers to position themselves to be the ones who will come out better at the end of this crisis.

Future calamity has already been set in pace by our response to the coronavirus; so you cannot stop the crisis from hurting humanity, but you can still try to position yourself to be one of the new mammals. Continue reading “COVID Brings New Hope to First-Time Home Buyers”

The Great Recession

Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and BlackRock Financial Management are stacking up wealth like never before, thanks to the Great Recession 2.0, a.k.a. the Second Great Depression. Yet, the Fed maintains its recovery plans do not create wealth disparity.

Fed-hawk Ron Paul wrote this week,  Continue reading “Goldman’s Stacks of Gold”

The Great Recession

The coronavirus pandemic inflicted a “swift and massive shock” that has caused the broadest collapse of the global economy since 1870 despite unprecedented government support, the World Bank said.…

“This is a deeply sobering outlook, with the crisis likely to leave long-lasting scars and pose major global challenges,” said World Bank Group Vice President for Equitable Growth, Finance and Institutions Ceyla Pazarbasioglu…. Continue reading “Drumbeats of the Epocalypse: The Economic Death March Has Come to Town!”

The Great Recession

We are nearing that mid-point in July when I said we would start to see the news turn from euphoria-inducing reopening positives to depression-developing realism.

Speaking of stock-market bulls who are stampeding uphill on the euphoria side, I wrote, Continue reading “Epochalypse Now: How Deep is Your Depression?”

The Great Recession

Bloomberg reported this week that thirteen US companies (in the 50-million-plus size) filed for bankruptcy last week.

That brought the total for the big boys and girls this year to 117, which matches the record peak for the first half of a year set in 2009. Continue reading “US Bankruptcies Busting Out to Match 2009 Peak Mean Trouble for Stock Market”

The Great Recession

Look at the plethora of problems in my list of 2020 economic predictions, which are so severe and so likely to get even worse that it’s more difficult to imagine they won’t get worse than to believe they will. Some are so bad that just a few of them would plunge us into an abyss of social and financial catastrophes.  Continue reading “2020 Economic Predictions: This Series of Unfortunate Events Guarantees the Epocalypse”

The Great Recession

Before we get into the timing of the recession, here is a graph that is particularly telling of the Fed’s journey and is worth studying from left to right. Notice how chaotic and less effective our journey with FedMed has become, just as I wrote about in another article this week (“Zero Hedge Confirms Fed is Dead“). Continue reading “Recession Started Right on Time — Before Most Were Even Aware, So Beware!”

The Great Recession

Whether it is more likely for the economy to recover in a V-shaped pattern or not, the stock market did. Now it is struggling everyday to hold the pattern as it keeps trying to refasten on news of a V-shaped recovery but gets beaten down by news of COVID-19 threatening the recovery: Continue reading “To “V” or Not to “V”? That is the question.”

The Great Recession

When asked by the press if the Fed was concerned about how it has increased wealth disparity in the US with its policies, Papa Powell kept clearing his throat and parading his lamest thoughts.

“Inequality is not related to monetary policy,” he claimed in the Fed’s defense.  Continue reading “Lying, Deadbeat Fed Fathers Starving Children but Feeds His Fat Favorites”

The Great Recession

Jerome Powell burst the stock market bubble by publicly acknowledging there will not likely be a “V”-shaped economic recovery. He indicated that it will take years for the economy to return to the recent levels … we experienced just a mere four months ago.

—Seeking Alpha

Continue reading “Papa Powell Sees “Tremendous Human and Economic Hardship” (No V-Shaped Recovery)”

The Great Recession

The first graph gives you a glimpse of the “huge jobs rebound” that shocked the stock market into spurting past its 200 DMA barriers because retail investors and algos aren’t looking past the headlines. Continue reading “The Jobs Report Misunderstanding in a Nutshell: NO V-Shaped Recovery in Sight”