THE WIND FIELD COULD EFFECT AREAS WEST AND NORTH FOR MANY MILES.
DISTURBANCE 6 is 21.5N 86.5 W or approx. 40miles NNE of Cancun MX.
Movement it to N at 10mph. Max tropical storm winds now reach out to 180miles.
Chances of further development are at 90%, but confidence in the forecast is still low, too many variables as yet.
As the center of the system approaches the Yucatan channel this morning, the low level circulation is getting better defined. It can be expected to reach tropical storm level this evening. Conditions in the Gulf of Mexico are ideal for development so the forecast still calls for the system to peak as a moderate tropical storm with winds up to 50mph. Some models are calling for a slightly stronger storm. It might reach up to 60-65mph. It is possible that it will slightly weaken as it approaches the TX coast to have only 45mph winds at landfall. (Corpus Christi)
Models are coming into convergence on the system moving toward TX. A few still say LA. Enough ridging should force it to the west before it reaches the northern Gulf. This will be a very large system so heavy squalls should be expected from SE LA through the lower TX coast. Beware of “cones” or “possible tracks” you see on teewee. No source that I can find is showing such on this system yet, only possible data from different models (spaghetti).