Weather – by Jon ErdmanA multi-day severe weather outbreak, including tornadoesm will continue through Thursday in parts of the South and Midwest.
Some severe weather may continue into Friday along the East Coast and South. This is the most widespread severe weather event so far this spring.
The meteorological ingredients that may be in play for the potential mid-week severe weather outbreak.
The pattern this week has some similarities to a classic Heartland spring severe weather outbreak.
First, a bullish southward plunge of the jet stream, or trough, will swing through the Plains and Upper Midwest.
In the atmosphere’s lowest levels, progressively warmer and more humid air is arriving from the Gulf of Mexico into parts of the Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley.
With that vigorous jet stream overlapping warm, humid air and surface features – such as a drylines that divide High Plains dry air from more humid air to the east – and a warm front helping to lift the unstable air, the stage is set for a potential outbreak of severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes.
A few severe storms fired up Tuesday in advance of the main upper-level jet stream dip. Baseball-sized hail was reported in Kentucky and a pair of brief tornadoes were reported in Kansas.
Severe weather occurred again on Wednesday, including a tornado that touched down near the Kansas/Oklahoma state line, as well as large hail and flash flooding in Missouri.
Here is our latest severe threat forecast.
- Thursday: There’s a widespread threat of severe thunderstorms from central Texas to the Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Some supercells with tornadoes possible in the afternoon and early evening hours. There is some uncertainty regarding how unstable the atmosphere will become in the afternoon after morning thunderstorms rumble through the region. This will dictate exactly how much and where we see the most significant severe storms in the afternoon.
- Thursday threat cities: St. Louis | Chicago | Little Rock, Arkansas
- Thursday night: A broken line of severe t-storms will continue to push east ahead of the advancing cold front in the Ohio Valley into the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley with a threat of hail and damaging straight-line winds.
- Thursday night threat cities: Indianapolis | Louisville | Huntsville, Alabama
Thursday’s Threat Area
Areas shaded in red have the greatest risk of seeing severe storms.
Thursday Night’s Threat Area
Areas shaded in red have the greatest risk of seeing severe storms.
- Friday: Scattered severe storms possible with damaging winds and hail from the Mid-Atlantic states to the Gulf coast and westward into central Texas.
- Potential Friday Threat Cities: Philly | Washington, D.C. | Raleigh | Houston
Friday’s Threat Area
Areas shaded in red have the greatest risk of seeing severe storms.
Also, with this slow-moving western trough and the east-west frontal boundary in play, heavy rain and flash flooding could become serious threats, particularly in parts of the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys saturated from heavy rain last week.
Flood/Flash Flood Alerts
Check back with us at The Weather Channel and weather.com for the latest on this severe weather outbreak.
Do you know where to go in your home, apartment, condo, or place of business if a tornado warning is issued?
Now is a good time to refresh your tornado safety plan, before a warning is issued.