Sam Carpenter is on a mission to Make Oregon Great Again. The self made businessman is capitalizing on the Trump momentum, even marketing “Make Oregon Great Again” hats in the style of University of Oregon Ducks and Oregon State University Beavers for his campaign for Governor. In a state where Trump lost bigly, and where democrats have held the governor’s seat since 1987, the latest polls show Carpenter leading incumbent democrat Kate Brown by 5.3 points, 45.8% to 40.5%, with 13.6% undecided.
BREAKING NEWS: latest poll puts us in the lead over @KnuteBuehler; @greg_wooldridge a distant 3rd at just 4%. AND we do best against @OregonGovBrown – beating her by more than 5 points! #MOGA #orpol https://t.co/wxwz2ZkbQL – @dvgulliver
— Carpenter for Oregon (@CarpenterforOR) April 3, 2018
Carpenter’s press release reads:
Closing a 13-point deficit in four weeks, Sam Carpenter has taken a slim lead in the race for the Republican nomination for Governor of Oregon, according to the results of the latest survey from Triton Polling and Research.
In this March 26th -released major scientific poll, conducted among more than 2,000 Oregon likely voters, Carpenter edges out establishment-backed Oregon State Representative Knute Buehler by a fraction of a point, 23.1% to 22.9%. Former U.S. Navy officer Greg Wooldridge placed a distant third at 4.2%.
This poll comes a month after a February 26 Triton poll, taken shortly after Wooldridge entered the race, showed Buehler leading Carpenter 31% to 18%, with Wooldridge emerging at 8%.
Carpenter is now trending steadily upwards as his competition falls. “As we had planned from the beginning, we are gaining powerful momentum at this critical point in the race,” said Carpenter, a Bend-area businessman and turn-around specialist running on a Trump/Pence-like platform to Make Oregon Great Again. “Oregon Republican voters share our conservative values,” Carpenter continued. “They want a nominee who is pro-life, pro free-enterprise, tough on immigration, supports the Second Amendment, and who stands with our Republican President, Donald Trump.”
Voters may also be showing displeasure with Buehler, who has recently come under fire for skipping debates and candidate forums with Republican groups.
The poll also showed Carpenter performing best of the three candidates one-on-one against incumbent Governor Kate Brown. In this hypothetical matchup, Carpenter defeats Brown by over 5 points, 45.8% to 40.5%. “These numbers dispel the decades-old myth that it takes a moderate Republican who panders to the Portland elite to win,” said Carpenter. “We are winning this primary race by energizing the conservative Republican base and speaking for all of Oregon.”
The Republican primary is May 15.
Highlights of a deeper analysis of the latest poll include:
In a period of just four weeks, Knute Buehler fell by 8 points, while Sam gained over 5 points. This is a 13-point swing in less than four weeks, putting the Carpenter campaign into a slight lead – 23.1% to 22.9%!
Over the same period, Greg Wooldridge’s campaign has surprisingly crashed and burned. Wooldridge’s support has been cut in half, down to just 4%.
There is another part of our strategy that has also worked out as-planned. Instead of focusing on fund-raising over these past six months, Sam has spent his time talking with voters – individually and in groups – sharing a consistent message of principled, pragmatic conservatism. Republican voters want to see a candidate who is pro-life, who will defend the right to keep and bear arms, who opposes sanctuary state status, and who supports our President, Donald Trump. See where Sam stands on the issues – Sam IS the conservative candidate who represents real Republican values, and all of the great Oregonians who share them.
So, since early September, Sam has expended the majority of his time in communicating one-on-one with Oregon voters. We estimate that over this period, he’s made personal connections with over 100,000 individual Republican voters.
The polling shows that voters are responding well to Sam’s open communication, transparency, and willingness to engage.
What else did the poll show?
It’s clear that voters who had previously supported Knute Buehler are now starting to reject him. They don’t like that he’s skipping debates (see the Jeff Mapes article), and that he has been focusing more on raising money than on connecting with his own party faithful. And many who initially supported him based solely on name recognition, or his previous alleged “front runner” status, without really knowing him, changed their minds the more they learned.
This important point is sharply evident in these latest poll results. Questions Q8 and Q18 are precisely the same question, and in-between are questions that illustrate some of the main positive and negative aspects of each of the three candidates. Compared to Q8, the answers to Q18 shift dramatically in our favor. (Our goal here with questions Q9 through Q17 was to measure how different messaging might affect voter reaction to each campaign, including our own. We think you’ll see the questions are fair, designed to gauge reaction to valid personal positions and history, rather than to elicit a biased response.)
Part of this latest Triton poll matches each of the top three Republican candidates in potential head-to-head races with Governor Brown, with a sample of over 2,000 voters that accurately represents the demographics of the general election. Guess what? ALL THREE Republican contenders beat her – that’s great news for Republicans across the state. But even more telling, Sam defeats her by the largest margin – over 5 points.
You read that right: outspoken CEO, conservative political outsider, and unabashed Donald Trump supporter Sam Carpenter has the largest projected margin of victory over the sitting progressive far-left governor, Kate Brown.
Once and for all, this dispels the myth that an Oregon statewide candidate must “swing-left” to win the general election.
What is the most amazing thing about all this? We’ve achieved the lead spending only 10% of what Knute Buehler has spent. So far, the Buehler campaign has fruitlessly expended well over a million dollars while we’ve carefully spent just over one hundred thousand. It really is a new era in politics! How could we possibly be in the lead after having spent so little? It’s the powerful message of course, but especially because Sam has been the CEO of his own campaign, insisting on super-efficiency as he’s carefully led a tight team of managers and volunteers. Creating organizational efficiency is what he does for a living, and he’s very good at it – and as CEO of Oregon, he’ll apply the same methodology to our Salem government. He says, “I can’t wait to get into the middle of the Salem swamp, to lead the charge to get that bloated monster under control!” (Learn more about Sam’s background as an organizational turn-around expert on his website, www.workthesystem.com.)
So, now we begin to focus on the long-goal: defeating Governor Kate Brown. And current polling notwithstanding, we know it’s going to be an epic battle – Brown will have the full support of the media, the unions, and her minions in the Oregon Deep State. And she, and the 15% of voters who make up the no-compromise progressive far-left contingent, will ruthlessly unleash their Clinton/Alinsky-style assaults on all of us.
That’s OK! We’ll be hammering back with equal fervor.
While the local media tries to ignore Carpenter and fawn over pro tax increase, pro universal heath care, anti 2nd Amendment Knute Buehler, it’s becoming clear that the citizens are fed up and looking for positive change.