The junta is no longer afraid

Colonel Cassad

Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Vadim Pristayko said that Ukraine is preparing for a “full-scale war”. According to him, Kiev is “no longer afraid to enter a conflict with a nuclear country”

Pristayko told about Kiev’s preparation for the military conflict in his interview for the Canadian radio station CBC on February 21. Pristayko emphasized that Kiev “doesn’t want to scare anyone”, but that “it is preparing for a full-scale war”. Pristayko noted that the Ukrainian authorities closed the border with Russia. According to him, “the stakes are very high right now”.  

Pristayko said that the Russian president Vladimir Putin “must be stopped in the name of the Russian people and not just Ukraine or Europe”. According to the deputy head of the MFA of Ukraine, “everyone is afraid to enter a conflict against a nuclear state”, but “Ukraine, which already lost a lot of people and territory, is no longer afraid”. Pristayko said that Kiev asks Canada to start shipping lethal weapons so that Ukraine “can protect itself”. Characterizing the today’s situation with the implementation of Minsk agreements, Pristayko said that the militiamen “didn’t stop”. “Our largest railroad hub is fully destroyed. One doesn’t have to be a genius in order to understand what they are trying to do. They capture more and more strategically important positions”.

http://top.rbc.ru/politics/21/02/2015/54e89c8b9a7947454fbeb41b (in Russian) – link

PS. Pristayko is – to put it mildly – lying, because besides the capture of Debalcevo, which remained outside the scope of Minsk agreements (which actually allowed the NAF to finish off the encircled group), the NAF are not engaging in any large-scale offensive actions with the goal of capturing strategically important positions. All of the cries about the preparation of the NAF offensive on Mariupol and Kharkov are not confirmed by anything concrete. Quite the opposite, even in those places where the fighting ceased the junta tries to increase the intensity of military action by shelling cities and the NAF positions. According to the official DPR datahttp://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/54e8b91d9a7947454fbeb420 (in Russian) during the week of truce between February 14 and February 20, 145 civilians died. During the summer there were many weeks when fewer people perished and back then it was considered that there is a war, and now there is a “truce”. This is done in order to push through the shipments of lethal weapons into Ukraine. Actually, the junta line is obvious: it simply copies its own practice of September-December 2014, when it supported low-intensity warfare and accused the people’s republics and Russia of this. Today it does the same thing. Furthermore, the junta is supported by both the USA and the EU, which a-priori accuse the DPR, the LPR, and the RF of violating the Minsk agreements and threaten with new sanctions (the threats were sounded by Merkel, Hollande, and Kerry). Of course, in Kiev they perfectly understand that the escalation of the conflict will exasperate the conflict between the RF and the West, so a compromise with Russia and even more so with the people’s republics is not needed for the junta. And this is exactly why the 3rd truce will be disrupted sooner or later, moreover just like the previous two cease-fires (July and September ones), it will be violated by precisely the junta, which has a number of forceful capabilities to sabotage the negotiation process.

The game of the USA is also quite transparent. They benevolently allowed Merkel to get her thing done, after which they busily (including by the junta’s hands) started to torpedo the achieved agreements, presenting Russia as the main guilty party.

The State Secretary of the USA John Kerry said that the international community discusses new sanctions against Russia for her capture of the territories of Ukraine and that Moscow is behaving “absolutely shamelessly and cynically” over the last few days.
While speaking in London before the start of the negotiations with the minister of the foreign affairs of Great Britain Philip Hammond, Kerry told the journalists that the USA and its allies don’t intend to ignore what is according to him “extremely low behavior” of Russia. The head of the foreign ministry noted that in the UN Russia intends to put the blame for the situation in the Eastern Ukraine on the government of the country, while simultaneously continuing, according to Kerry, a “land grab” in this region.

http://www.golos-ameriki.ru/content/kerry-ukraine-russia/2653245.html (in Russian) – link

It is clear that in Washington they perfectly understand the the liberation of Debalcevo doesn’t violate the Minsk agreements in any way, but they will prevent even this AFU catastrophe as a manifestation of the Russian treachery and her “extremely low behavior”. So, the military rhetoric of the junta, which “isn’t afraid of the war with Russia”, is a reinterpretation of the American line, which actually pushes the junta towards increasing the space of the hybrid war in Ukraine. The main goal is certainly not a world war with the use of nuclear weapons and not even a direct clash with NATO with certain limitations on the WMD, but exactly the escalation of the hybrid war up to the approximate level of the “Korean war”, when the contingents of the USA and its allies and also of the USSR and China were fighting behind the forces of the north and south Koreans pretty much openly. Currently the mode of work by the voentorgs of the sides is maximally camouflaged and the war is officially presented as the war between the junta and the people’s republics. The USA want to raise the stakes in exactly the main confrontation, when the involvement of the sides in the conflict will increase and correspondingly the risks for the participants of the war will increase, which start to become increasingly more global. The junta is just an instrument with which the USA are trying to push this situation towards the desired direction. Russia, which tries to get a frozen conflict, impedes this to the extent of its abilities. Because the current format of supporting the people’s republics is not sufficiently expensive to become unbearable, certain space for diplomatic maneuvering is preserved.

Nevertheless, because there is a full understanding that the truce may be broken in the nearest time and that military action will restart in the spring, the Kremlin doesn’t put all eggs into the same basket and is pushing the topic of the Ukrainian government in exile increasingly more actively. Synchronous emersion of Azarov and Yanukovich is a signal for the junta and the USA of sorts that if the pressure on the RF won’t be reduced, then the Kremlin will walk the path of splitting Ukraine, because it is obvious that such a government will be able to establish its authority only over a part of Ukraine, but it will be quite sufficient to activate the processes of turmoil in a number of regions of the South-East and partially legitimize the past actions of Russia and also the subsequent moves in the Ukrainian game. Naturally, all of this had to be done back in the spring of the last year, so this scheme is shamelessly late, but even now it can be quite useful with a proper selection of cadres for such a government and with a properly organized promotion of this government. What’s the most important in this question: as this process moves towards its practical realization and as the risks of a rift in the remaining Ukraine will grow, the idea of the Greater Novorossia, as one of the variants of reassembling one of the parts of the disintegrating Ukraine, will be inevitably in play. For now this is just a project, but given further escalation of the war (which the Kremlin tried to avoid in every way), the logic of the war itself will demand stricter measures from Russia on the Ukrainian direction.

The variant with a military intervention, which was convenient in March-April of 2014, is no longer as attractive (the external situation changed significantly to Russia’s disadvantage), but there are other effective instruments that have to do with the internal destruction of the junta and of the Ukraine as a state with the formation of several new states on its territory some of which will be friendly to Russia and will effectively be under its protectorate and some of which will be hostile to Russia and will be under the U.S. protectorate. At this stage neither side can establish the control over the whole territory of the Ukraine in its pre-disintegration borders. The Ukraine is no longer able to be completely pro-American or completely pro-Russian and so that is why, given the continuation of the war towards which the USA are guiding the junta, further disintegration of Ukraine (both due to objective reasons and also due to the logic of war) is very probable. At the same time, the paradox of this situation is that Russia is actually not against keeping Ukraine intact in its current borders (with a frozen conflict in Donbass and without Crimea), but it is precisely the junta which does everything to get to a situation when the Kremlin will have no other choice except solving the riddle by wrapping up the Ukraine as such in order to completely reshape the playing field on the land where the Ukraine used to be. Naturally, the USA will be satisfied with this variant, because the conflict won’t go away in this case either and it will be possible to benefit from this war and from the conflict between the RF and the EU. Naturally, both the EU and the RF will suffer significant losses from the implementation of such a scenario, but the Ukraine itself and its population, which became a hostage of the american policy that pushes the world towards a war, will suffer the most.

Overall, no matter how the conflict between the USA and the RF will develop, it ain’t going to end well for the Ukraine.

Original article: http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/2057613.html (in Russian)

http://cassad-eng.livejournal.com/124489.html

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